The SHFE tin market is in a game phase of "strong reality, weak expectations". SHFE tin prices may remain high and range-bound in the afternoon [SMM Tin Midday Review]

Lunchtime Commentary on the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract on June 12, 2025

This morning, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2506) maintained a high-level sideways trend. It opened at 265,100 yuan/mt, showing a slight fluctuation compared to yesterday's closing price of 265,530 yuan/mt. By midday, it closed at 265,140 yuan/mt, down 0.02%. Trading activity in the market was relatively sluggish, with open interest slightly decreasing to 25,500 lots, reflecting the ongoing tug-of-war between bulls and bears near the 264,000 yuan/mt threshold.

Limited Support from Restocking at Lower Prices: Although downstream restocking demand was released when tin prices fell to 250,000 yuan/mt, purchase willingness weakened as prices rebounded above 260,000 yuan/mt. The spot market exhibited a pattern of "high premiums and low trading volumes."

The current tin market is in a phase of "strong reality vs. weak expectations": Short-term supply disruptions and inventory drawdowns are supporting prices, but the off-season demand and macro uncertainties are capping the rebound. In the afternoon, attention should be paid to changes in open interest and whether trading activity in the spot market can pick up. If premiums continue to widen, it may provide further upward momentum for prices.